No Netflix subscriber number disclosures? No problem. That was the Wall Street reaction to the global streaming giant’s first-quarter results disclosed in April, the first without sub updates. Now, analysts are gearing up for Netflix’s second-quarter results, which the company will report after the stock market closes on Thursday July 17.
The impacts of recent price hikes — the ad-tier was boosted to $7.99 a month in the U.S., up from $6.99, and the cost of the premium tier was raised $2, to $24.99 — and the growth of its cheaper advertising tier, as well as its recent and upcoming film and television slate, are among the issues in focus for Wall Street observers.
Many analysts have increased their stock price targets on Netflix, led by co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, as its shares have gained around 40 percent so far this year.
“We view Netflix as one of the least risky stocks this quarter,” Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney wrote in his quarterly earnings preview, maintaining his “outperform” rating with a $1,350 stock price target. “We view the Street’s second-quarter revenue, operating income and earnings per share estimates as reasonable. While the Street’s sequential revenue growth of 5 percent is ahead of typical seasonality (flat to +2 percent over the past three years), we note that Netflix should benefit from a significant sequential foreign-exchange tailwind as well as from full-quarter impacts of recent price increases in select markets. Further, Netflix has a very consistent recent track record of exceeding its revenue and operating income guidance.”
Mahaney even sees five potential upside factors, including “positive takeaways from our mid-May upfronts meeting with Netflix management, which included the disclosure that Netflix’s global monthly ad viewers had reached 94 million” and “our late May survey work in the U.S. and U.K., which highlighted relatively positive subscriber satisfaction trends in both markets, as well as strong indications of Netflix’s content quality leadership.”
The expert also mentioned his ad channel checks, “which noted Netflix finally crossing a credibility/scalability threshold with marketers” and “the very, very, very strong release of the Squid Game finale on Netflix at the end of June – with unprecedented and record-breaking views (60 million in first 3 days), country rankings (#1 in 93 countries), and social channel impressions (4.56 billion).”
A fifth and final possible upside factor is Netflix’s top 10 viewership data that “suggests unusually strong second-quarter engagement, with a meaningful acceleration in viewing hours growth versus the first quarter,” Manahey argued.
Wedbush Securities analyst Alicia Reese maintained her “outperform” rating and $1,400 stock price target in her earnings preview report on Monday. “With Netflix no longer reporting net subscriber additions, the focus on quarterly targets has diminished, shifting attention to broader financial performance and strategic outlook,” she wrote. “We believe investors have already factored in a modest earnings beat and an upward revision to full-year 2025 guidance.”
She also remains bullish looking ahead. “While massive subscriber growth was the primary driver in 2024, we expect price increases to drive revenue growth in 2025, and the ad tier to drive revenue higher in 2026,” Reese argued. “As Netflix expands, its contribution margin can massively exceed our estimates, driving outsized free cash flow.”
BMO Capital Markets analyst Brian Pitz also sees AI as an opportunity for Netflix. In a report early this week reiterating his “outperform” rating and boosting his stock price target from $1,200 to $1,425, he concluded: “We believe Netflix is an AI beneficiary for both content creation and cost savings, which creates a multi-year operating income unlock opportunity.”
He continued: “AI tailwinds are beginning to proliferate, with multi-year benefits ahead given ‘hundreds of billions’ of user interactions globally. AI tools should prove complementary to current CGI/VFX products, enhancing production workflows, expanding creator capabilities, and driving user engagement.”
Pitz raised his second-half 2025 revenue and operating income estimates, “reflecting record-breaking Squid Game 3 viewership data, foreign exchange, and an attractive content slate in the second half.”
Others are also bullish. Heading into the latest earnings update, Needham & Co. analyst Laura Martin boosted her Netflix stock price target from $1,126 to $1,500, while sticking to her “buy” recommendation and listing what she likes about Netflix.
Strategically, what she likes most about the streamer is that “Netflix has global scale, which should maximize its revenues/content investment; price increases, both directly and through its paid-sharing crackdown; more bundling with other services should lower its churn rate; advertising should accelerate revenue growth and expand its margins, since advertising typically has 75 percent incremental margins; and, generativeAI will most likely benefit companies that are tech-first, and Netflix qualifies.”
Financially, what she likes about Netflix is “its stable content spending at $17 billion-$18 billion; it has stated that its cash content spending versus amortization will remain at around 1.1 times so free cash flow is more predictable; and, Netflix has said it will use its growing free cash flow to repurchase shares (rather than pay down debt now that they are investment grade), which puts a relative floor under its share price, thereby mitigating risk.”
Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich had already increased her Netflix price target at the end of May. Reiterating her “buy” rating, she pushed her target from $1,175 to $1,490 in a report entitled “Playing Offense and Defense in Media.”
“We continue to view Netflix as well-positioned given the company’s unmatched scale in streaming, further runway for subscriber growth, significant opportunities in advertising and sports/live and continued earnings and free cash flow growth,” the expert wrote. “Supported by its world-class brand, leading global subscriber scale, position as an innovator and increased visibility in growth drivers, we believe that Netflix will continue to outperform.”
Reif Ehrlich also touted Netflix’s second-half of 2025 programming lineup as “a content bonanza,” arguing that it “showcases a blend of high-profile originals, franchise continuations and finales as well as a healthy mix of live/sports content to drive strong ad-supported engagement.” Concluded the analyst: “The return of Netflix’s three most watched series – Squid Game (6/27), Wednesday (8/6) and Stranger Things (second half 2025) alongside new releases such as Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, Adam Sandler’s Happy Gilmore 2 and Tina Fey’s The Four Seasons supports healthy retention and subscriber growth.”
TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge, in his second-quarter earnings preview, even touted a “monster” slate ahead. He stuck to his “buy” rating on the stock, while lifting his price target from $1,325 to $1,440.
“Our second-quarter survey shows Netflix is gaining pricing power despite [the] January ’25 price hike,” he highlighted. Indeed, Netflix increased its subscription prices in the U.S., Canada, Portugal, and Argentina in January, “which should benefit average revenue per member,” he pointed out.
“We expect to see a monster second-half TV & film slate, including global hits Wednesday (starring Jenna Ortega) and long-awaited Stranger Things season 5. In addition, Squid Game returned at the end of the second quarter, with follow-through viewership likely to benefit the third quarter,” concluded Blackledge. “We view Netflix as well-positioned ahead of a monster second-half 2025 slate.”
Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak remains the biggest Netflix bull on Wall Street. He recently raised his stock price target on the streamer from $1,350 to what he called a Street high $1,600, while sticking to his “buy” recommendation. The drivers were a move from a year-end 2025 to a year-end 2026 target price and the expert’s “increasing confidence in Netflix’s dominant market positioning.”
Wrote Wlodarczak: “Netflix remains underpenetrated globally, offers an extremely compelling price to entertainment value (that is continually improving) boosted by their ad-supported offering that should allow the company to continue to generate solid subscriber growth and average revenue per user (ARPU) growth (price hikes plus continuing to ramp advertising offset partially by lower ARPU developing markets) = a powerful combo.”
Concluded the Netflix bull: “Netflix has won the global premium content streaming race. The key, in our view, for Netflix management going forward is to press their advantages and keep the subscriber/ARPU flywheel going because the larger they get the more leverage they have over their peers/content creators, the better their product gets (allowing them to drive subscriber/ARPU growth), the more cash they have to spend on compelling content and the larger the moat grows around their core business model.”
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