Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ to Beat Dwayne Johnson’s New Movie

Taylor Swift appears to be enjoying the role of box office queen.

She’s returning to theaters this weekend with a special event pic promoting her new album, The Life of a Showgirl, which comes out Friday. The big screen album release party, which will also feature the world premiere of the music video for Showgirl single “The Fate of Ophelia,” music videos and behind-the-scenes footage, is expected to tower over the competition and win the relatively quiet Oct. 3-Oct. 5 box office race with anywhere from $25 million to $35 million, if not more. Tracking suggests $35 million, while distributor AMC Theatres — which also partnered with the superstar musical artist on her record-breaking concert pic Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour — is being more conservative in suggesting $25 million to $30 million.

Either way, that’s well ahead of opening weekend projections for its closest competitor, the Dwayne Johnson-led wrestling drama The Smashing Machine. That’s not exactly a surprise, considering Johnson’s latest outing is a specialty pic from A24, versus the sort of wide-appeal action movie The Rock is best known for. Smashing Machine, which made its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival as this year’s awards season kicked off, is tracking to open in the $12 million to $14 million range.

Directed by Benny Safdie, Smashing Machine reunitues Johnson with his Jungle Cruise co-star and good friend Emily Blunt, who played a key role in bringing Johnson and Safdie together. The film is based on the real-life story of Mark Kerr, a former college wrestler who battled trauma and an addiction to painkillers during the early years of the UFC.

Another player to watch this weekend is James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, which is being rereleased exclusively in 3D. Like Swift’s team, Cameron and partner 20th Century/Disney are using the box office for promotional purposes: this Christmas, Avatar: Ash and Fire opens.

Cameron’s Avatar movies have generally done well when rereleased, and this time out, the focus on Imax is an added bonus. The movie will be playing in 90 percent of all Imax auditoriums domestically but will have to share Dolby Cinema screens and other premium large-format auditoriums with the Showgirl release party. Way of Water is projected to earn $3 million to $4 million domestically from 2,100 theaters; rivals think it could approach $5 million.

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl is only playing in cinemas for three days, and Swift’s team went to great lengths to keep the project top secret until the 11th hour (they almost succeeded, but not quite), much to the chagrin of other distributors, such as A24 or even Disney, who don’t like last-minute surprises even if the idea of a live audience watching a viewing party on the big screen is a far cry from the sort of frenzy surrounding her Eras Tour. She announced the Oct. 3-Oct. 5 special event on Sept. 19 in a well-orchestrated social media post informing fans that advance tickets would go sale that day at 12:12 local time for $12, in keeping with Swift’s longtime relationship with numbers (Showgirl is her 12th album). Consumers can expect to pay more for Imax and other premium large format screenings.

“I hereby invite you to a *dazzling* soirée, The Official Release Party of a Showgirl: Oct 3 – Oct 5 only in cinemas,” Swift wrote across social media on Sept. 19. “You’ll get to see the exclusive world premiere of the music video for my new single ‘The Fate of Ophelia,’ along with never before seen behind-the-scenes footage of how we made it, cut by cut explanations of what inspired this music and the brand new lyric videos from my new album The Life of a Showgirl. Looks like it’s time to brush off that Eras Tour outfit or orange cardigan… Tickets are on sale now. Dancing is optional but very much encouraged.”

Like her tour itself, The Eras Tour film was a phenomenon when opening in 2023 to a huge $93.2 million domestically on its way becoming the top grossing concert film of all time with $261.6 million in global ticket sales. Swift and her team financed the $15 million project herself, bypassing the Hollywood studio system and partnering with AMC Theatres, the country and world’s largest cinema circuit, AMC Theatres Distribution is releasing Showgirl in partnership with Variance Films in the U.S. and Canada, and with Piece of Magic Entertainment in other international markets.

This weekend, the one-hour-and-30-minute film also opens in its first 18 international markets. It will continue its international rollout throughout October.

Showtimes begin Oct. 3 — the day of the album’s release — at 3 p.m. local time.

Both Avatar and Smashing Machine will host Thursday previews.